The Official Predictify Blog

Reasons for, well, Reasons

Today we are releasing a feature called 'Reasons' - micro-blog style rationales that users enter when they predict on any topic. 

Users will be able to easily browse the top quality reasons for the top three answer choices on the topic pages.

Reasons was the brainchild of Charles, one of the brainiac software engineers with UI tweaks by our hugely talented UI Engineer, Jesse.

Heretofore, if you wanted to browse the top reasons for users predicting a given way, you had to browse through the comment list and filter the opinions for a particular answer choice. 

Now, you can get a zeitgeist of the users' opinions that could help inform and educate you about a particular topic and help guide your opinion.

If you mouse over the reasons, you will see a rating button that can be used to rate up a comment.

The popularity of a given functionality can be gauged by the extent and speed by which you get used to it and start using it. I have the feeling Reasons will be such a feature.

-Venu

EW.com's So You Think You Can Dance Prediction Challenge

After an extremely successful and widely participated American Idol Prediction Challenge, Predictify's partnership with Entertainment Weekly continues with the launch of
EW.com's So You Think You Can Dance Prediction Challenge. Similar to the Idol Prediction Challenge, you're able to pick who gets sent home each week, add your opinion to the discussion, compare your picks with EW.com experts and get the inside scoop on what Americans across the country are predicting. Be sure to head over to the challenge, lock in your picks and earn on a spot on that coveted leaderboard!

For those of you not familiar with the show, So You Think You Can Dance is an American dance reality contest that features 20 dancers who passed a gauntlet of auditions and will be regularly sent home over the following weeks, with one finalist crowned "America's Favorite Dancer" at the end.

Over the past 10 weeks, EW.com's American Idol Prediction Challenge accurately forecast the week's loser 7 times with almost 100,000 total predictions. Additionally the community tirelessly discussed their American Idol predictions with over 75,000 comments! We're expecting similar participation this time around, so march on over to EW.com's So You Think You Dance Prediction Challenge, invite your friends, weigh in with your opinion, and prove you're the best So You Think You Can Dance predictor out there.

Jesse

comment quality

Hey out there!

I'm Andy, one of the engineers here at Predictify. I wanted to let you guys know about a new feature I built: the comment quality system.

Controversial subjects elicit strong feelings and most of Predictify's hot topics are no exception. On the internet where users are mostly anonymous, debates can often turn into personal attacks. We are not here to censor our discussions based on political leanings, but I do get annoyed when I see an interesting question's discussion descend into slogans, name calling, and accusations. 

I wanted to do something to pat those on the back who are taking time to provide interesting comments that make Predictify a place where we can all learn and grow. So I wrote Predictify's Comment Quality System (beta). It now determines which comments show up at the top of the discussion. The system takes into account a lot more than just the number of thumbs up and thumbs down a comment gets, but exactly what I CAN'T SAY! :P. 

We're still working out the kinks, but I think it's starting to push things in the right direction. Let us know what you think!

Down to the Final Two on American Idol!

Wow. This season of American Idol has been interesting to say the least! Last night Danny Gokey, who has never been in the bottom three, received the fewest of the 88 million votes that were cast. That leaves Adam Lambert and Kris Allen to fight for the crown in the Season 8 finale next week.

Of the 10 weeks so far, America has been right 7 times and EW.com's Michael Slezak has also been right 7 times on our EW.com American Idol Prediction Challenge. America has spoken - so far they think Kris Allen is going home. Michael Slezak is keeping mum at this point. What do YOU think? Predict now at EW.com and let America know who will be the next American Idol.

Mohit

Registration? Again? Facebook Connect Provides a Solution

How do you keep track of all of your usernames, passwords and registered emails for all of the web sites you regularly visit?  I have tried to keep all of mine the same but as different sites have different requirements for how long your password must be, my favorite username is sometimes taken taken, and there is often some random requirement that makes me come up with a new username and / or password and I have wound up with 3 or 4 different usernames and 3 or 4 different passwords I need to remember depending on the site I want to visit.  It  can take me up to a full minute to run through 8 or 9 different username / password combinations before I hit on the combination I used to register.  I hate creating new accounts for exactly this reason. This is one of the big reasons we decided to integrate Facebook Connect into our login / registration system here at Predictify.  Now, new users to our site don't have to go through the hassle of registering another account - they can simply click the big "Facebook Connect" button and login to our site using their Facebook account!

Once logged in, users can also share their Predictify predictions, questions, and soon their comments with their Facebook friends via automatic updates to their news feeds.  All in just one click!  I have started sharing my predictions regularly on my Facebook page.  I hope all Predictify-ers will start taking advantage of this cool new way to share their thoughts on the future!

Zack

Welcome, Michael Jacobs

We're excited to welcome the newest member of the Predictify team, Michael Jacobs, as Vice President of Sales.

Mr. Jacobs brings over a decade of advertising sales experience, most recently as Director of Sales at CBS Interactive (formerly CNET Networks), where he led advertising sales initiatives for BNET, ZDNET and TechRepublic. Michael holds an MBA from St. Mary's College of California, and a BA in Organizational Communications from San Francisco State University. At Predictify, Mr. Jacobs will lead sales of sponsorhips, custom deployments, and sponsored questions -- a proprietary advertising technology that provides unparalleled consumer engagement.

Welcome, Michael. We look forward to big things!

Parker

Idol Thoughts, Week 7

This season of Idol is full of surprises! After a few predictable weeks in which Michael Sarver, Megan Joy Corkrey, and Scott McIntyre were voted off, the judges used their 'Save' to keep Matt Giraud's hopes alive. Will they eliminate two contestants this week, as promised?

Either way, the crowd predicts that Lil Rounds will be sent packing -- and every state but West Virginia agrees. Who will join her? Make your prediction now!

Here's the map as of Tuesday, April 21:

Parker

Two Vignettes of Crowd Wisdom (or Lack Thereof)

Last week, the EW.com / Predictify crowd correctly predicted that Scott McIntyre would be voted off of American Idol (56% overall, and all 50 states + rest-of-world). So far, the crowd has made the right call 4 out of 5 weeks, vs. 3 of 5 for EW.com's Idol expert, Michael Slezak, and 2 of 5 for yours truly.

In contrast, the crowd's optimism about Tiger Woods' chances at the Masters (63% predicted a victory) didn't help Mr. Woods overcome four lackluster rounds, including a bogey-bogey finish on Sunday, to finish in a four-way tie for sixth place. Yet the crowd is still optimistic about Tiger's chances to have a good year: 91% predict at least one major, and 59% predict more than one.

Looks like Tiger has some work to do!

Parker

Predictify on Twitter

Most of us Predictify-ers are also Twitter-ers, but we thought that our most important asset - YOU - was not getting enough love out in the Twitterverse.  So, as of last Wednesay (April 1st) Predictify has been a-tweet, sending out snippets of YOUR insights to the masses.  Predictify updates its Twitter status 2-3 times a day with what it deems to be relevant and intriguing forecasts for the future, using YOUR comments and predictions to help it determine what to say.  Some recent tweet topics include: A-Rod's steroid use, American Idol, the war in Iraq, the North Korean rocket launch, the G20 summit, the iPhone, gay marriage, and the Conficker virus. 

Take a second to check it out - I think you'll be surprised at how on-topic and accurate Predictify - YOU - can be.

Zack

Insightful is Delightful

As you probably noticed, we recently added insights to all of our questions at Predictify: simple text phrases which describe an interesting piece of information about which predictors are predicting what. We have developed a data synthesis system which computes simple, easy to understand insights into user predictions.

Grinding through information about predictors and their predictions, a specially designed data synthesis system finds interesting facts about the data and generates a text phrase, and a graph corresponding to the phrase. For example, on the question "Will there be a terrorist attack on U.S. soil in 2009?" an interesting insight generated was “20% less beginners predicted No than scholars” which suggests that more accurate predictors are also more cool-headed about terrorist attacks in the U.S.

An important piece of this system is user feedback. As insights are clicked on, read, and quoted, their quality rating will increase, and components from the highest quality insights will be combined to create more, increasingly meaningful, intriguing, and perhaps entertaining, insights about predictor’s opinions. This means that each time you check back on the insights page for a question, you will probably see new, more interesting insights than before!

For example, the terrorist attack question might also h ave the insight “10% more men predicted Yes than women”, and this insight and “20% less beginners predicted No than scholars” might be combined to produce “10% more women predicted No than men” by taking the demographic, gender, from the first insight, and the prediction, “No”, from the second insight.

After repeated recombination of insights (with some random noise thrown in there as well), you may discover some very intriguing things about different group’s predictions. So, enjoy digging deep into the insights, and feel free to send us feedback, comments, and suggestions about Predictify Insights!

Charles